Simple maths?
We are told by the CDC : –
"The HIV/AIDS crisis at home remains tragic as precious lives continue
to be lost to the disease. Each year 40,000
Americans are infected with HIV. Currently, an estimated 900,000
Americans are HIV positive and evidence indicates those numbers are
increasing, not declining or even holding steady."
What is startling is that this is the same line we’ve been told for
years now. We supposedly have this increasing
number of "HIV converts" (40,000 per year), yet that number, 40,000
remains the same year after year. Weird. It like, 40,000, 40,000,
40,000, 40,000, 40,000 and on and on and we have ‘evidence’ for increasing
seroconversions. Lame.
And that number, 900,000. Someone at the CDC just completely pulled that
number from their ass.
In 1990 the CDC retroactively revised downward the estimates of
HlV-infected persons for the period of 1985-89 (in the US). It went from
1.2 million to 0.75 million. The number for 1990 itself was said to be
about I million (CDC, 1990). Then, in 1996, the CDC retrospectively
revised downward the 1992 estimate to yet another figure of 650,000. By
1996, the number of people said to be infected was between
650,000 and 900,000.
So there’s that number 900,000 being used in 1996. Yet now in 2003 we
supposedely still have 900,000
ESTIMATED infected people according to the SGN article (they use the word
‘currently’). However, in 1999, to further confuse matters, the
CDC estimated HIV incidence as approximately 40,000 infections per year
and the number of persons living with HIV at about 800,000 to
900,000 (MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 1999). So if you’re head isn’t just
spinning quite yet, consider this; if, in 1996, they had an
estimated 650,000 to 900,000 HIV ‘poz’ folk, in 1999 they had 800,000 to
900,000 ‘poz’ folk. Why only increase the lower estimate? Do we
now only have ONE estimate and not a range? If we take the 1996 estimate
of 900,000 and add 40,000 new cases per year until the end of
2001, we really should have 1,140,000 ‘poz’ people. If we go back to 1992,
when
the number was said to be a firm 650,000 and add 40,000 cases per year
until 2002, we come up with 1,050,000 cases. So where they get
this 40,000 number and 900,000 is beyond me. Perhaps they revised the
numbers down without really telling anyone.
I hope you are all completely and utterly confused, because frankly, I
think the CDC, with all their numerous PhD
heads running around, are as equally confused.